NBA Finals betting: The market cools on the Heat, player props for Game 4

It all looked a little easy, didn't it?

The Nuggets slowly but surely dismantled the Heat in Game 3, with their two best players - Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray - throwing down 30-point triple-doubles. The blistering, man-on-fire, shooting display Miami delivered at the start of the fourth quarter in Game 2 never came, and as the minutes piled up, so did Denver's lead.

Unfortunately for our player props, we had the wrong rustic color scheme: Christian Braun brought the energy we thought would come from Bruce Brown, even though the latter played more minutes than his average. Kevin Love didn't get his 20-plus minutes, despite hitting a pair of threes, and Gabe Vincent kept finding himself in the wrong place at the wrong time, racking up fouls that took him out of the game and perhaps out of rhythm.

Game 4 goes Friday night in Miami, marking the lone single-day gap between contests in the NBA Finals. The Heat are looking for answers after getting blown out in a game that went well under the total - the type of scoring pace that was supposed to help them. With the Nuggets wrestling home-court advantage back, the series price moved from shy of -300 to -800. The Game 4 point spread has remained the same, while the total has dropped.

The game-day move in the point spread from Nuggets -2.5 to -3.5 proved prescient Wednesday. It was also a sign that big money didn't take too much from the Heat's Game 2 victory. The closing line - and subsequent opening line for Game 4 - is just five points different from where the line stood through the early Denver-hosted portion of the NBA Finals.

There's little to speak of when it comes to value in the point spread since the market has strongly focused on finding a larger separation than we might've expected.

Lining this game again at -3.5 despite an easy Nuggets win in Miami suggests some expectation for the Heat to play better coming off a loss. This goes back to the zig-zag element we've discussed throughout the playoffs, where the team that lost the last game actually gets more credit in the point spread for the next contest.

As for the total, the natural inclination is to see a move downward by at least two possessions and play the over. It sounds simplistic, but shooting percentages will determine whether Game 4 goes over a lowered total. The Nuggets shot 27.8% from three (another bad sign for Miami) in Game 3, while the Heat shot 31.4% from deep and 37% overall. When Game 2 went over, it was due to that explosive 36-point Heat fourth quarter.

Nikola Jokic under 30.5 points (-110)

We liked Jokic as a scorer in Games 1 and 2 when his prescribed point total was 27.5 at home. Now that his total is 30.5 on the road, we'll go the other way. Though Jokic scored 32 points in Game 3, if he's had any trouble in this series, it's been with the attention he's gotten in the paint. We're not even sure Jokic wants to be the Nuggets' primary scorer, and with a better defensive effort expected from a desperate Heat squad, we'll take a couple of points of value here.

Gabe Vincent over 12.5 points (-120)

Even with a first-half stretch in which he committed two touch fouls, left the game, came back in, immediately got a third, and left again, Vincent got his shots up. He just didn't make them. Look for him to play five-to-eight more minutes than the 32 he recorded in Game 3 and shoot better than 2-for-10 from the field.

Kevin Love over 4.5 rebounds (-105)

We need one fewer rebound from Love than last contest, and the veteran might've played more in the second half had Game 3 been closer. We cited Love grabbing six-plus rebounds in nine of 11 playoff games in which he's played 20-plus minutes. With this requirement down to just five boards, we can take the playing time caveat away and note that he's 13-5 to the over in the playoffs as a whole on a 4.5 rebound total.

Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double: Yes (-110)

Even if he doesn't go over 30.5 points, Jokic can still dominate. He has seven triple-doubles in his last nine games and is 10-8 on this bet for the playoffs. The Nuggets also seem cognizant of when their players are close to these sorts of accomplishments when leading comfortably, as Michael Malone left Murray out on the court to get a late rebound for his triple-double, which makes betting these markets a little more interesting.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.